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2021 JAN 07

YESTERDAY (January 6, 2021)
If you aren't living under a stone, yesterday you watched a mob storm the Capitol building in Washington, D.C, and disrupt the proceedings to confirm the results of November's presidential election. Unprecedented was the fact that this riot was instigated by the outgoing president of the United States, Donald Trump, who will be leaving office in less than two weeks. Remarkably the people comprising this mob were there under his invitation and direction to "take back their government".

What a shock for them; there was nothing to take but empty rooms. More importantly what this mob learned was that our government is a government by choice. A government in Abraham Lincolns 's famous words "... of the people, by the people, for the people". What they learned is that our government is not a building, not a small group of people who dictate their future, and not even a document, or set of documents, that direct the proceedings of this government. What they learned was that our Federal government is at its roots the collective opinion of the citizens of this country. An opinion determined by elections held regularly in order to reflect that opinion. And that if you don't agree with that collective opinion you are going to have to work to change it to your liking through the election process. There is no other way. Not even by having the president of this country claim that the elections are unfair unless they agree with HIS opinion.

Whether by design or miscalculation, the absence of a force to meet and contain the mob at the Capitol building was a brilliant maneuver. Some members of the normal Capitol police presence even assisted the mob to enter the building. The mob reacted by filling the building, and waving flags of all descriptions from the balconies and windows; some of which they felt the need to break in order to enter the building, when they could have walked through the front door. What surprised me was the reaction of many of these people as they entered the building, and passed through the large space of the rotunda under the Capitol dome. They walked slowly in a line, along the pathways constrained only by the velvet ropes and posts, pausing along the way to look up and around at the beautiful glass, statuary, and marble surroundings. I am sure that for many of them, this was the first time that had ever been in this building. And it had the same effect on many of them as it does on most tourists entering a large cathedral: one of awe and reverence.

Some of the mob of course acted like drunken teenagers, taking advantage of the parents' absence from the house of a friend. Released from normal constraints the only rule of behavior became — everything that was forbidden was permitted. But, to a large extent, the contents of the building were left intact and undamaged, and the formerly riotous crowd left peacefully at the urging of a force majeur that arrived some hours later. Perhaps leaving with a greater appreciation for the "seat of power" and with the realization that they can accomplish nothing without the support of the vast majority of the people who actually are the government of these United States.

Later that same evening their elected representatives were back in that same building conducting the business of government that had been delayed, but not obviated, by the presence of the uninvited guests earlier in the day. Surely this quick return to normalcy is the best assurance that our democracy and our government are resilient enough to handle even an insurrection in its midst, and then continue to function in a normal fashion, notwithstanding the temporary shock of intrusion on our elected representatives. Imagine the surprise and admiration of the people of the world as they viewed this event from afar, having never seen the like of which in the history of human governance.

CODA: It is with great regret that we mourn the loss of one of the demonstrators to a gunshot wound. Given the extreme nature of this event, it is surprising that more lives were not lost in this experience from which we have all learned important lessons. Her loss will not have been in vain.

I'd also like to add that the Capitol police who were injured deserve medals of honor, and that the force as a whole acted with remarkable restraint in the face of overwhelming danger to themselves and congressional staff members.

 
     
2020 DEC 27

SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS AND INEQUALITY
I applaud the efforts of Melanie Moses and Kathy Powers to describe the potential inequities in vaccine distribution to prevent COVID-19 from spreading to non-white populations. Unfortunately a design for distributing the vaccine, featuring a correctly biased plan of distribution, would occupy more time than actually distributing the vaccine to the entire population of the United States.

The primary reasons for people of color being more adversely affected by the SARS-Cov-2 virus are highly correlated with their socioeconomic status. Indeed a close look at the correlations will reveal the actual causes for their increased morbidity, as so aptly pointed out by Moses and Powers. Unfortunately, in the next few months, we can't solve the problems created by history and long-held cultural values, changes which are needed to create a society where "all men [Homo sapiens] are created equal".

I have modeled the infection dynamics of COVID-19 and arrived at the conclusion that herd immunity will not protect identifiable population clusters. Herd immunity will prevent the exponential growth of the virus among the general population, but will not prevent the spread to microclusters within that population. Even if vaccinations reach the herd immunity threshold (approximately 55 percent of the population), the virus will continue to spread albeit at a much slower rate. (see: COVID-19 Infection Dynamics)

Given our lifestyle in these United States we do have a very large mixed population - people don't stay home, but congregate in places at random times that feature large numbers of people traveling freely. This is the primary reason we are seeing the surge in infections that we are currently experiencing. This surge will continue as long as people continue to actively ignore taking preventive measures to minimize transmission from person to person.

Socioeconomic status inherently biases the transmission and morbidity of the virus, as well as adversely affecting the distribution of many other factors that contribute to our material wealth and general well-being. We need to solve the problems that arise out of the context of the system in which we currently live. We just are not going to be able to do that in the timeframe needed to serve the greater good.

see: A Model for a Just COVID-19 Vaccination Program


 
     
2020 DEC 10

WHAT THE HELL DOES IT MEAN TO FALL BEHIND IN SCHOOL
It means, for example, that some education bureaucrats, somewhere, have decided that by the fifth grade a student should be able read at the fifth grade level. Problem is, any definition of  a fifth grade reading level is completely arbitrary.  Our brains don't work like that. When a kid is capable of reading, they will read. When I started school  in the first grade they handed me a Dick and Jane reader. On the first (maybe the second or third) page were the words: "See Spot run". That sentence took up the whole page along with a drawing of a black and white Cocker Spaniel running.

(NOTE: I hate that breed. A black and white Cocker Spaniel used to chase me up a street sign pole every day that I walked home from school in the third grade.)

Turns out that I could read  stories in the sixth grade reader at the time. Do you think that they would have given me a sixth grade reader instead of the Dick reader. No. I was forced to read out loud with the rest of the class (half of whom I suspected were as bored as I was) until weeks later we finished Level 1. Guess what level we were assigned next.

There is a private school in England called Summerhill. Kids are sent there when parents have given up trying to have them educated in public school. This was extant as far back as the 1950s. Summerhill continues to this day. The first thing a new student noticed was that no one payed any special attention to them. They could pretty much do what they damn well pleased. In particular, they were not expected to attend classes. As far as rules go, the kids themselves made them up in meetings that were held every so often as required. Consequences were meted out to kids who broke the rules. They might be forbidden to attend classes for a week for an egregious offense.

This might have struck a "problem" child as odd, given that they themselves hated going to classes. This seeded the question in the "problem" child's head: What is going on in these classes that makes all these other kids attend them?  That curiosity enabled the first real choice they could make on their own regarding their educations. It was empowering. Instead of giving up their freedom of choice, they had gained it.

Classes, of course, were nothing like those a "problem" child had experienced in public school. The children were as much participants in the process as the "teacher". There was a lot of back and forth between the students and the teacher, and between the students themselves. Often the students would provide an answer to another student's questions. Class time flies when you are having fun, and are a full participant in the educational process.

And here's my point: when students are ready to learn to read, they learn to read from Dick and Jane to the Hardy Boys or Nancy Drew or Harry Potter at a speed of their own choosing, which always consumes less time than that found in a public school setting. Kids who are both cognitively and emotionally ready to read learn to read quickly and with ease.

NOTE: It is up to the teacher to recognize cognitive impairments that impede the progress of students in any subject in which the students may have an interest. In a public school setting these impairments may go unnoticed, or may be intentionally hidden by the student to avoid embarrassment. It is up to the teacher to establish such an environment of trust, that the student will seek aid when it is needed. Or for the teacher to approach the student in private to discuss the problems they are having, and work together to solve them. We call these kids special needs students today and do seek to help them, but a lot more kids who are not significantly impaired fall through the cracks. We need to recognize and help them succeed (not fail) as much as is humanely possible, in order to allow them to live full and intentional lives.

The only falling behind that the kids do in public, private, and charter schools today, is not meet the expectations of the adults who are being held responsible for the kids meeting arbitrary standards. Standards set in an arbitrary manner by people whose only goal is to treat kids like commodities on a production line. "God help me if the line should ever slow down or come to a complete stop." I call this the Henry Ford model of education. It is very popular with bureaucrats. And it is the reason that so many people in our society today do not have the critical thinking skills needed to make good choices for their own lives, and good choices for the people that they elect to public office.

 
     
2020 DEC 03

CONFIRMS MY THINKING AND EXPERIENCE AS I GROW OLDER
Over the past several years I have had the misfortune to require health care for several problems, some of a serious nature. Most, if not all,  of the initial diagnoses were flat out wrong. What's more, as I sought treatment from different physicians, each of them proposed that the nature of my problems arose from disorders in which they specialized. Reading this article (http://nautil.us/issue/45/power/bias-in-the-er) simply confirmed my suspicion that the medical profession relies more on pattern recognition than on critical thinking. There exists a tremendous bias based on their professional experience: they have seen this problem before, they have treated it in this manner, and the problem was resolved. Period.

That might work for a significant fraction of their patients, but it probably has the same probability of being successful in recognizing a problem as does racial profiling  among our police forces. I really became upset with physicians, and began my own crusade to rectify this situation.

Professionally over many years I have been both an educator (all levels from elementary through college), and a systems engineer (complex hardware, software, and environmental systems). I have an undergraduate degree in physics and graduate degrees in both education and systems engineering.

My first observation was that my appointments in physicians' offices , and that of many other patients, consists of a 15 minute visit where the physician, or more often a physician's assistant makes a snap judgement as to the nature of your disorder. They recommend a test or  series of tests based on that judgement. If the results all come back negative - which in my case most of them did - they feel that their job is done. "See you in six months", or more likely a year or never again.

What is going on here? First, the time frame which the health care industry allots to a problem for the individual patient is determined more by the economics of running a business than it is by the nature of the problem with which they are being confronted. Doctors simply do not have the time to spend on individual problems to the extent required to do a thorough analysis. The only analysis for the problem offline is when the test results are placed in their hands, and this usually acts to reenforce or negate their initial opinion, whether communicated to the patient or not. Treatment recommendations are usually based on these results (as illustrated in Michael Lewis' article).

Secondly, the tests that are run based on the physician's initial conclusion (it is just that, rarely is it treated as an hypothesis), are usually absent of any previous history of the patient's physiological record in this matter. To me it sounds like trying to predict the future behavior of a complex system by talking a snapshot of its activity in a very short interval of time. In my case I had kept meticulous records of my PSA values over many years. In the past couple of years the values had increased dramatically so that the values appeared to be growing exponentially. Since the total values were still below any value to cause a more extended review of my case, and no tumors were detected on the basis of initial physical examination of the prostate, no alarm was raised by my general practitioner, nor the physician's assistant I managed to see at a urologists' office. I insisted on an MRI. I was told that was out of the question, that the insurance company would never approve of it at the relatively low levels of my total PSA.

I did some reading and asked for a fractionated PSA test: total , bound , and free. The results came back indicating a high probability of cancer. I got the MRI I had requested on the basis of this information which showed a tumor. I also had requested the 3T multiparametric MRI so as to give a high resolution image: one that could assist in a directing a needle biopsy. NOTE: A needle biopsy is the normal first procedure once a digit exam reveals a tumor. Without imaging the needle biopsy  is purely a "random" sample of the prostate: 12 needles. Ouch. The results may reveal nothing amiss even if a tumor or tumors are present. Furthermore a needle biopsy so messes up the interior of the prostate that a follow up  MRI must be delayed by at least six weeks before an accurate image of the prostate can be obtained.

Along with the typical biopsy data I requested a genetic analysis of the type of cancer involved. The results of that analysis indicated a rather aggressive form of prostate cancer. The tumor plus many diffuse sites were near the margins of the gland itself. My urologist recommended removal of the prostate. The radiation oncologists agreed with me that radiation was the best solution. I went with the radiation, successfully.

If I had the space I would describe my efforts to convince various physicians that I was suffering from Lyme disease and its antibody after effects. Same problems. No proper analysis of the data nor any reference to my physiological history.

Given my personal experience with the health care business, especially as I grow older, I find myself very sympathetic to Don Redelmeier's cause. And as a result I am in the process of designing a curriculum for students of human health. The program requires a paradigm shift in the way we educate people who would solve the intractable problems that arise in the context of the human biosystem. One of the program's most important features is an emphasis on mathematics, especially discrete math (includes probability and causal inference) and on subjects relating to the cognitive and social sciences. We need a systems approach to medicine. Not a bunch of authoritarians with preconceived notions and the constraints imposed on them by business and insurance practices.

http://nautil.us/issue/45/power/bias-in-the-er

 

 
     
2020 Nov 24

WHY GENERALISTS TRIUMPH IN A SPECIALIZED WORLD
Is the subtitle of a book by David Epstein titled "Range". Epstein's book  covers this theme in depth with many examples to show how people with broad interests find it much easier to excel at their activities of choice, even more so than people who have spent their whole lives specializing in just one. This is a must read if you are raising kids and one of your goals for them is to be really good at "something". One of the most important criteria for "success" in this aspiration is to let the student do the choosing. Our job as parents is to expose them to as much of the world as we possibly can so that they have a plethora of activities to choose from.

Having had a lifetime interest in education, I can tell you honestly that this is probably the best book on the subject of how to be "successful" in life that I have ever read. It provides the basis for decision making in anything we do to improve our skills in dealing with life in a way that will contribute to our happiness and self esteem, as well as being able to excel at something if that is one of your goals or a goal for someone else. One of the book's best features are its discussions of what does and what does not work in our quest for achievement. Epstein is also a great writer and a pleasure to read.

This book should be required reading for both educators and students in a formal education setting whether it be STEM subjects or the humanities. One interesting irony is that it will show how wrong an emphasis on focusing on STEM subjects is as an exclusionary educational practice. For the rest of us it reaffirms the value of trying on the  many different costumes of activities that serve people as careers or avocations. The more we experience the better we become at being able to make important choices in life through association. It is a skill that is impossible for AI software to emulate no matter how fancy the algorithm, and the reason why AI will never be as "good" as a human being in decision making in activities that require associative judgements.

 
     
2020 Nov 21

POLITICAL GAME THEORY
What is the best winning political strategy for Republican members of Congress right now? The question each of them needs to answer for themselves  is: How should I respond to Trump's current behavior in light of his loss to Joe Biden in the presidential election? There are a few possibilities, none of them have good outcomes, so the members are forced to choose the outcome which has the least negative consequences.

Criticize Trump
In light of the danger that Trump's behavior poses on many fronts, including the welfare of this country's inhabitants, and the threats posed to national security, each of them should be protesting Trump's behavior and calling for action on a number of fronts. Of course, they perceive this option as antithetical to Trump's large support base — which they perceive as also representing their electoral base — and if they value reelection they should not antagonize this base by criticizing Trump. Getting reelected has always been their highest priority.

Support Trump's argument that the election results are fraudulent
Like Mitch McConnell they could angrily insist that Trump has the right to pursue all his legal options in contesting the outcome of the election, until those legal options are exhausted. They perceive this as the "high moral ground" argument. On the other hand, Trump's arguments about election fraud are baseless, and have been refuted by each and every electoral commission in every state. So pursuing this option makes them look as foolish as Trump. It also pushes any supported transition activities to the limit of the lame duck period, also endangering national security.

Do nothing, remain silent.
Trump's reign (as he perceives it) will be over on 20 January 2021. That's less than two months away with large recesses in between. If they say nothing, they will not be perceived by their support base as critical of Trump, thus (probably) not impacting their reelection potential. Also they will not have to justify their position to national media audiences, which is sure to attract negative attention one way or the other. And this criticism will all blow over quickly once Biden assumes office, and has to deal with all the negative consequences that Trump hath wrought throughout his term in office, including these last two months. People will be blaming Biden because they will be occurring on his watch, not Trump's. Therefore, the probability of the electorate affixing blame to them for any untoward outcomes, as a result of their collective silence, will be pretty low.

The choice is clear for the "Do Nothing" party.